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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 38.96 | $0.770 | $35.26 | +$5.26 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Yes | buy | 17.68 | $0.566 | $10 | May 15, 2026 |
|
| Yes |
| 63.53 |
| $0.331 |
| $4.13 |
| -$16.87 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 25 | $0.400 | $3.38 | -$6.63 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 18.05 | $0.554 | $2.73 | -$7.27 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 41.67 | $0.240 | $2.71 | -$7.29 |
 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 27.57 | $0.254 | $1.65 | -$5.35 |
 Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 17.14 | $0.350 | $1.46 | -$4.54 |
 Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Yes | 29.41 | $0.340 | $1.09 | -$8.91 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 17.86 | $0.280 | $0.8 | -$4.2 |
| buy |
| 14.08 |
| $0.710 |
| $10 |
| May 15, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.429 | $15 | May 4, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No | buy | 34.88 | $0.860 | $30 | Apr 25, 2026 |
 Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?No | buy | 9.26 | $0.540 | $5 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes | buy | 46.15 | $0.650 | $30 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Yes | buy | 39.79 | $0.754 | $30 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No | buy | 46.15 | $0.650 | $30 | Apr 25, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes | buy | 17.86 | $0.280 | $5 | Apr 23, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 20.69 | $0.290 | $6 | Apr 23, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.49 | $0.770 | $5 | Apr 23, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.54 | $0.570 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 34.29 | $0.350 | $12 | Apr 23, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?No | buy | 51.95 | $0.770 | $40 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes | buy | 14.61 | $0.527 | $7.7 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?No | buy | 38.96 | $0.770 | $30 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.86 | $0.280 | $5 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.34 | $0.306 | $5 | Apr 14, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "King" during Fox interview on Wednesday?No | buy | 6.17 | $0.810 | $5 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Leo" or "Pope" during Fox interview on Wednesday?No | buy | 17.86 | $0.560 | $10 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" during Fox interview on Wednesday?No | buy | 17.44 | $0.860 | $15 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 14.71 | $0.340 | $5 | Apr 14, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?No | buy | 4.18 | $0.700 | $2.93 | Apr 14, 2026 |
 Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?No | buy | 19.82 | $0.504 | $10 | Apr 14, 2026 |
 Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 14.09 | $0.355 | $5 | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.800 | $10 | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.98 | $0.430 | $3 | Apr 12, 2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.79 | $0.190 | $3 | Apr 12, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.240 | $10 | Apr 12, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No | buy | 44.6 | $0.448 | $20 | Apr 8, 2026 |
 US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Yes | buy | 20.83 | $0.240 | $5 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.400 | $10 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 6.67 | $0.750 | $5 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.42 | $0.223 | $5 | Mar 28, 2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No | buy | 18.05 | $0.554 | $10 | Mar 28, 2026 |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.340 | $10 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Yes | buy | 27.03 | $0.370 | $10 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes | buy | 8.62 | $0.580 | $5 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Yes | buy | 16.84 | $0.297 | $5 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Yes | buy | 30.3 | $0.330 | $10 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 41.01 | $0.244 | $10 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.350 | $10 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Yes | sell | 41.66 | $0.790 | $32.91 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 20.41 | $0.490 | $10 | Feb 19, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike EditionNo | buy | 33.33 | $0.600 | $20 | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike EditionYes | sell | 25.64 | $0.410 | $10.51 | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike EditionYes | buy | 25.64 | $0.390 | $10 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.170 | $5 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.100 | $5 | Jan 24, 2026 |