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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 329.77 | $0.004 | $1.27 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 2.41K |
| $0.383 |
| $922.79 |
| Jun 28, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.96K | $0.005 | $10.59 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?No | sell | 1.06K | $0.571 | $607.52 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | sell | 5.15K | $0.010 | $50.14 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Yes | sell | 887.75 | $0.070 | $62.14 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 6.21K | $0.007 | $40.42 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.15K | $0.058 | $66.44 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 191.85 | $0.610 | $117.03 | Jun 28, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No | sell | 999.99 | $0.130 | $130 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes | sell | 489.66 | $0.530 | $259.52 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes | sell | 973.4 | $0.470 | $457.5 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No | sell | 1K | $0.130 | $130.2 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | sell | 1.5K | $0.390 | $585 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.96K | $0.030 | $59.02 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?No | sell | 500 | $0.260 | $130.17 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | sell | 8K | $0.106 | $851.85 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | sell | 3K | $0.120 | $360 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.42K | $0.032 | $238.46 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes | sell | 798.52 | $0.127 | $101.18 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 2.06K | $0.034 | $70.04 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?No | sell | 537.03 | $0.302 | $162.37 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Yes | sell | 570.41 | $0.400 | $228.16 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes | sell | 298.97 | $0.016 | $4.89 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 785.6 | $0.035 | $27.3 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 827.95 | $0.002 | $1.97 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No | sell | 83.08 | $0.060 | $4.98 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?Yes | sell | 1.92K | $0.002 | $2.92 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 17.48K | $0.002 | $34.98 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 4.28K | $0.005 | $23.2 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 1.16K | $0.006 | $6.84 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No | sell | 11 | $0.710 | $7.81 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 841.65 | $0.007 | $5.48 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 1.33K | $0.003 | $3.73 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.58K | $0.005 | $11.76 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Yes | sell | 1.53K | $0.011 | $16.38 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Yes | sell | 1.56K | $0.005 | $7.44 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Yes | sell | 2.46K | $0.006 | $15.66 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 191.85 | $0.723 | $138.66 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 489.66 | $0.707 | $346.42 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes | buy | 416.28 | $0.659 | $274.31 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes | sell | 2.51K | $0.188 | $472.03 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | sell | 797.59 | $0.160 | $127.61 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Yes | sell | 1.29K | $0.013 | $16.68 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 5.47K | $0.003 | $17.73 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 5.3K | $0.008 | $42.26 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 8.27K | $0.004 | $32.29 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 2.48K | $0.021 | $52.79 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 107.11 | $0.850 | $91.04 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 31.04K | $0.003 | $99.71 | Jun 25, 2026 |