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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 14.41 | $0.694 | $13.36 | +$3.36 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | buy | 1.14 | $0.877 | $1 | 2d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 12.82 |
| $0.780 |
| $12.55 |
| +$2.55 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 24.39 | $0.410 | $12.26 | +$2.26 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 41.67 | $0.120 | $11.33 | +$6.33 |
 Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 547.02 | $0.022 | $10.12 | -$1.88 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 15.38 | $0.650 | $8.54 | -$1.46 |
 Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | Yes | 22.62 | $0.442 | $7.84 | -$2.16 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 19.23 | $0.520 | $6.83 | -$3.17 |
 Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B? | Yes | 76.45 | $0.278 | $5.73 | -$15.52 |
 Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | No | 5.49 | $0.910 | $5.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 6.58 | $0.760 | $5.3 | +$0.3 |
 Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? | Yes | 5.15 | $0.971 | $5.08 | +$0.08 |
 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 7.75 | $0.645 | $4.99 | -$0.01 |
 Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.1 | $0.820 | $4.92 | -$0.08 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | Yes | 5.26 | $0.950 | $4.88 | -$0.12 |
 OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Yes | 5 | $0.580 | $4.68 | +$1.78 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20.22 | $0.495 | $4.55 | -$5.45 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 30.26 | $0.595 | $4.39 | -$13.61 |
 Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 183.03 | $0.060 | $3.75 | -$7.25 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Yes | 3.92 | $0.510 | $3.53 | +$1.53 |
 OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? | Yes | 5.68 | $0.880 | $2.98 | -$2.02 |
 Will Ethena reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 19.23 | $0.260 | $2.5 | -$2.5 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4 | $0.500 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
 Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | Yes | 9.4 | $0.532 | $1.87 | -$3.13 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.71 | $0.340 | $1.76 | -$3.24 |
| buy |
| 5.26 |
| $0.950 |
| $5 |
| 2d ago |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes | buy | 45.45 | $0.022 | $1 | 2d ago |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No | buy | 7.75 | $0.645 | $5 | 2d ago |
 Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 6.17 | $0.810 | $5 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 6.39 | $0.782 | $5 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 13.29 | $0.752 | $10 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?No | sell | 16.94 | $0.253 | $4.29 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 13.51 | $0.740 | $10 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 16.95 | $0.590 | $10 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 16.41 | $0.914 | $15 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 14.17 | $0.353 | $5 | 2d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.500 | $2 | 3d ago |
 Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Yes | buy | 7.45 | $0.671 | $5 | 15d ago |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.650 | $10 | 16d ago |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 19.23 | $0.520 | $10 | 16d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.82 | $0.780 | $10 | 16d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.58 | $0.760 | $5 | 16d ago |
 Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?Yes | buy | 6.84 | $0.731 | $5 | 16d ago |
| Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Yes | buy | 22.62 | $0.442 | $10 | 16d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 6.44 | $0.777 | $5 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.89 | $0.360 | $5 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.120 | $5 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 16.84 | $0.297 | $5 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | buy | 10.64 | $0.470 | $5 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | Jul 19, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 37.46 | $0.409 | $15.32 | Jul 19, 2026 |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 65.26 | $0.590 | $38.5 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 26.6 | $0.188 | $5 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic | sell | 7.14 | $0.860 | $6.14 | Jul 9, 2026 |
 Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?Yes | sell | 2.94 | $0.510 | $1.5 | Jul 9, 2026 |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 71.34 | $0.329 | $23.5 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 16 | $0.332 | $5.31 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 10.87 | $0.184 | $2 | Jul 1, 2026 |
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 87.72 | $0.057 | $5 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 26.18 | $0.191 | $5 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 94.34 | $0.053 | $5 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 58.82 | $0.148 | $8.71 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes | sell | 19.29 | $0.614 | $11.85 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.24 | $0.902 | $6.53 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.190 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 14.41 | $0.694 | $10 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 78.13 | $0.064 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 34.01 | $0.147 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.35 | $0.535 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.25 | $0.690 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes | buy | 6.17 | $0.810 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 9.44 | $0.740 | $6.99 | Jun 15, 2026 |