Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 15, 2026? | No | 447 | $0.970 | $431.36 | -$2.02 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
This view does not establish the wallet’s complete trading history.
| No |
| 418.08 |
| $0.950 |
| $394.25 |
| -$3.13 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 283.82 | $0.855 | $248.34 | +$5.55 |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 230 | $0.886 | $199.87 | -$4.05 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | Yes | 240.01 | $0.804 | $196.33 | +$3.36 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 200 | $0.860 | $177 | +$5 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 100 | $0.840 | $87.5 | +$3.5 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 100 | $0.845 | $84.5 | +$0 |
 Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 70.01 | $0.707 | $61.26 | +$11.74 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 46.22 | $0.873 | $45.43 | +$5.11 |
 Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 70 | $0.516 | $36.75 | +$0.65 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 284 | $0.116 | $25.56 | -$7.26 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.870 | $17.3 | -$0.1 |
 Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 50 | $0.300 | $13.75 | -$1.25 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 20 | $0.680 | $13.1 | -$0.5 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 70.09 | $0.256 | $8.76 | -$9.15 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 30 | $0.130 | $3.93 | +$0.03 |
 Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | Yes | 38 | $0.790 | $0.59 | -$29.43 |