What is the “Will $USDT depeg by September 30?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Oct 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Coinbase 1 minute candles for USDT-USD for any 24 hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 05 Aug '24 12:00 and 30 Sep '24 23:59 in the ET timezone. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e. 0.97999 or lower). A 24h period of USDT below 98 cents that starts on the last day will count (e.g. 30 Sep '24 22:00 to 01 Oct '24 22:00). The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the USDT-USD “High” prices…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

46 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 2, 1:22 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-usdt-depeg-by-september) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will $USDT depeg by September 30?

Market referencewill-usdt-depeg-by-septemberUpdated Oct 2, 2024 UTC

cryptoResolved

No · settled Oct 1, 2024 UTCcryptocrypto-prices

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$256.9K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Oct 2, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Oct 2, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

98%

Yes / No shares

19.71K / 30.03

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

447

Loaded notional

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
BenWafflelessburgers	buy	Yes	0.1%	1K	Oct 1, 1:18 AM UTC
Cosmic Atlas 1F10	buy	Yes

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will $USDT depeg by September 30?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Oct 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Coinbase 1 minute candles for USDT-USD for any 24 hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 05 Aug '24 12:00 and 30 Sep '24 23:59 in the ET timezone. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e. 0.97999 or lower). A 24h period of USDT below 98 cents that starts on the last day will count (e.g. 30 Sep '24 22:00 to 01 Oct '24 22:00). The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the USDT-USD “High” prices…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

BenWafflelessburgers

buy

Yes

0.1%

Oct 1, 1:18 AM UTC

Cosmic Atlas 1F10

buy

Yes