- What is the “Will US attack Iran by Nov 30?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: Will US attack Iran by Nov 30? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- How did this market resolve?
- It resolved No on 1 Dec 2023. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting.…
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
