Analytics
“Will Trump say "Jail" or "Prison" during the debate?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What will Trump say during the debate?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 28 Jun 2024. $50.81K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 8 daily price points from Jun 21, 2024 UTC to Jun 28, 2024 UTC (Yes between 60.5% and 83.0%); 2 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 184 recent public fills from 136 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 21 Jun 2024 – 28 Jun 2024 · axis zoomed to 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jun 2024 | 66.5% |
| 28 Jun 2024 | 83.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wcj | No | 305.29 |
| Degen123-201 | No | 41.67 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Jail" or "Prison" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Jail" or "Prison" is part of the compound word. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-the-debate
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.