Analytics
“Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Will Trump release more Epstein files by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 26 Dec 2025. $7.8M traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 5 daily price points from Dec 22, 2025 UTC to Dec 26, 2025 UTC (Yes between 58.0% and 100.0%); 356 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 90.8% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 322 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which were not previously public, by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. The following will qualify: -Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. -Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) The following will not qualify: -Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content. -Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET). -Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe. -Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch. -Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests. -Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court. -Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible. FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 22 Dec 2025 – 26 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Dec 2025 | 58.0% |
| 26 Dec 2025 | 100.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trader-M | No | 3.3M |
| YSHF | No | 314.42K |
| Jamesbondeat | No |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-release-the-epstein-files-by
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 100.39K |
| Amber Comet A54E | No | 62.5K |
| Swift Comet 5074 | No | 30.5K |
| MarckoPolo | No | 25K |
| DanaverasuraKarna | No | 22K |
| Keen Falcon 8941 | No | 20K |
| yesworld28 | No | 18K |
| Ghost-X | No | 17.03K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
