What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 9 Oct 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This is a market on who the upcoming HBO documentary will identify as Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

44 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 10, 4:56 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as…

Market referencewill-the-hbo-documentary-identify-someone-else-as-satoshiUpdated Oct 10, 2024 UTC

cryptoResolved

Yes · settled Oct 9, 2024 UTCbitcoinbtc

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$3.9M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 9, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Oct 10, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Oct 10, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

151.06 / 1.63M

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

260

Loaded notional

$910.61K

Yes sell at 99.8%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 9, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+51 pts

Range

17.5% - 81.5%

Oct 4, 12:00 AM UTC to Oct 9, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.61M	0.0%	$0
LGND	No	3.41K	25.1%

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 9 Oct 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This is a market on who the upcoming HBO documentary will identify as Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who still holds shares in this market?: 44 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Indigo Signal 2966

1.61M

0.0%

LGND

3.41K

25.1%

Trader	Current holding value
Drudger	$84.8
longlivepoly	$32.45
Mlinc	$19.12
MacroBull	$5.15
jayminho	$5
Raou;Salamanca	$3.03
sonic-867	$1.52
Indigo Signal 2966	$0
LGND	$0
trenchlord	$0
TrumpLover2024	$0
Wapka	$0

Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Questions about this market

Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Questions about this market