What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 27 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 89 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

107 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 29, 12:21 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-doomsday-clock-move-closer-to-midnight) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Market referencewill-the-doomsday-clock-move-closer-to-midnightUpdated Jan 29, 2026 UTC

Resolved

Yes · settled Jan 27, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$56.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 27, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 29, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 29, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

107

Wallets

107

Top 10 share

52%

Yes / No shares

6.63 / 8.48K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

304

Loaded notional

$19.58K

Yes sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 27, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+13 pts

Range

51.0% - 93.5%

Dec 18, 12:00 AM UTC to Jan 27, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 27, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Jan 27, 12:00 AM UTC	77.5%	77.5%
Jan 26, 12:00 AM UTC	85.4%	85.4%
Jan 25, 12:00 AM UTC	83.9%	83.9%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 27 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 89 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Jan 27, 12:00 AM UTC

77.5%

Jan 26, 12:00 AM UTC

85.4%

Jan 25, 12:00 AM UTC

83.9%