Analytics
“Will Russia capture Stepanivka by September 30?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Oct 2025. $42.92K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 57 daily price points from Aug 6, 2025 UTC to Oct 1, 2025 UTC (Yes between 0.3% and 74.5%); 14 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 99.6% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 284 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 57 points · 6 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | 54.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Buoyant-Internet | Yes | 4.75K |
| Quantoph | Yes | 700 |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the below-referenced intersection in Stepanivka, Donetsk Oblast province, by September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stepanivka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Stepanivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stepanivka+intersection.png Stepanivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stepanivka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kt6rkRC4WNccDtSB7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-stepanivka-by-september-30
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 286.14 |
| Zeot | Yes | 220 |
| Tonymontana96 | Yes | 198.61 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 133 |
| master.oracle | Yes | 47.62 |
| slvptr | Yes | 25.38 |
| zerowar | Yes | 21.75 |
| paveldurovindahouse | Yes | 21.74 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard