Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?

Name: Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 16, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$9.2M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 16, 2025 UTC

PricesPrice history from Polymarket's order book, daily closes, latest Dec 16, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Date	Close	Mid
Dec 16, 12:00 AM UTC	100.0%	100.0%
Dec 15, 12:00 AM UTC	100.0%	100.0%
Dec 14, 12:00 AM UTC	100.0%	100.0%
Dec 13, 12:00 AM UTC	100.0%	100.0%
Dec 12, 12:00 AM UTC	99.9%	99.9%
Dec 11, 12:00 AM UTC	79.5%	79.5%
Dec 10, 12:00 AM UTC	66.5%	66.5%
Dec 9, 12:00 AM UTC	47.5%	47.5%

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