Analytics
“Will New Popular Front win between 220 and 249 seats?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “How many seats will New Popular Front coalition win in French Election?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 8 Jul 2024. $2.37K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 11 daily price points from Jun 28, 2024 UTC to Jul 8, 2024 UTC (Yes between 2.5% and 49.0%); 1 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 29 recent public fills from 12 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the New Popular Front coalition (NFP, Nouveau Front populaire) wins between 220 (inclusive) and 249 (inclusive) seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election. If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the NFP coalition in the National Assembly as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior. Any coalitions made with other parties or elected deputies after the results of the election are reported will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published through the website of the French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/), however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-seats-will-new-popular-front-coalition-win-in-french-election
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 11 points · 28 Jun 2024 – 8 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2024 | 49.0% |
| 8 Jul 2024 | 3.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.11K |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
