Analytics
“Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$530 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Microsoft (MSFT) closes week of Dec 29 at ___?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 3 Jan 2026. $7.18K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 8 daily price points from Dec 27, 2025 UTC to Jan 3, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 50.0%); 20 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 93.7% of the loaded shares; 23 recent public fills from 17 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 27 Dec 2025 – 3 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.11K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 454 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes |
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/msft-week-january-2-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 343 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 319 |
| 9735 | Yes | 300 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 225 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 213 |
| chalicso | Yes | 164.77 |
| rated | Yes | 164.35 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 158 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard