Analytics
“Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by falling?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 11 Aug 2026. $1.37K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 5 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 9 recent public fills from 6 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message listed in the Java Edition section of https://minecraft.wiki/w/Death_messages (as that page appeared at market creation) for the specified damage type is displayed for either Kai or Speed following an in-game death between market creation and the end of the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Every death message listed for that damage type will count. The category of the in-game death is what matters, not the mob or player involved. Death messages listed for any other damage type on that page, or under the Bedrock Edition section, will not count, even where the cause of in-game death appears related. A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count. Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death. Only in-game deaths of the two accounts played by Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game. Deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Kai and Speed modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point. No in-game death will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. This market will remain open until the marathon ends, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time. The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
No price has been recorded for this market yet, so there is nothing to chart.
Resolution source: https://www.twitch.tv/kaicenat
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 50 |
| Mojito9 | No | 20 |
| bjprolo | No | 12 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
