Analytics
“Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What will Joe Biden say during May 8 interview?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 8 May 2025. $9.41K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 3 daily price points from May 6, 2025 UTC to May 8, 2025 UTC (Yes between 41.0% and 60.5%); 24 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 93.3% of the loaded shares; 70 recent public fills from 58 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Joe Biden is scheduled to participate in an interview along with Jill Biden on The View on May 8, 2025, 11 AM ET. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/TheView/status/1917958951775224044 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this interview is definitively cancelled by Joe Biden or ABC, or otherwise is not released by May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. The resolution source will be audio/video of the interview.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 6 May 2025 – 8 May 2025 · axis zoomed to 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 May 2025 | 41.5% |
| 8 May 2025 | 41.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jade Meteor 3E68 | No | 1K |
| Amber Comet 9474 | No | 995 |
| Emerald Sphinx 34A4 | No |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 980 |
| Ivory Orbit 52DD | No | 700 |
| Crimson Vector FAED | No | 670 |
| Amber Oracle 97A9 | No | 645 |
| Lunar Pulse B081 | No | 555 |
| Solar Comet B3F3 | No | 380 |
| Jade Lynx D4C1 | No | 320 |
| Rapid Pulse 58C3 | No | 285 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
