What is the “Will Harris win California by 25+ points?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Harris win California by 25+ points? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 14 Dec 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in California in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 25.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

13 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Dec 15, 12:19 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-harris-win-california-by-25-points) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will Harris win California by 25+ points?

Market referencewill-harris-win-california-by-25-pointsUpdated Dec 15, 2024 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Dec 14, 2024 UTCkamalapolitics

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$64.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 14, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Dec 15, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Dec 15, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

2.43K / 1.02

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

385

Loaded notional

$20.13K

Yes sell at 0.1%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Dec 14, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-61 pts

Range

0.2% - 62.0%

Oct 26, 12:00 AM UTC to Dec 14, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Dec 14, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Dec 14, 12:00 AM UTC	0.7%	0.7%
Dec 13, 12:00 AM UTC	0.8%	0.8%
Dec 12, 12:00 AM UTC	0.9%	0.9%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Harris win California by 25+ points?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Harris win California by 25+ points? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 14 Dec 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in California in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 25.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Dec 14, 12:00 AM UTC

0.7%

Dec 13, 12:00 AM UTC

0.8%

Dec 12, 12:00 AM UTC

0.9%