What is the “Will Elon respond to OpenAI today?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Elon respond to OpenAI today? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 14 Dec 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

On December 13, OpenAI posted a statement claiming that Elon Musk wanted the company to become a for-profit and "demanded majority equity, absolute control, and to be CEO" (see: https://openai.com/index/elon-musk-wanted-an-openai-for-profit/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk makes any public statement (including X posts) addressing the OpenAi statement by December 13, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Replies that Elon Musk makes to posts commenting on the situation will count, even if they are short (e.g. saying "Yes" to a post about OpenAI's statement…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

4 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Dec 15, 9:23 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-respond-to-openai-today) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will Elon respond to OpenAI today?

Market referencewill-elon-respond-to-openai-todayUpdated Dec 15, 2024 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Dec 14, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$168.8K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 14, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Dec 15, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Dec 15, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

97.78 / 1.35

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

361

Wallets

171

Loaded notional

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
metaold8	Yes	47.78	3.1%	$47.78	Dec 14, 8:04 AM UTC
Emerald Falcon 810C	Yes	30	7.0%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Elon respond to OpenAI today?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Elon respond to OpenAI today? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 14 Dec 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: On December 13, OpenAI posted a statement claiming that Elon Musk wanted the company to become a for-profit and "demanded majority equity, absolute control, and to be CEO" (see: https://openai.com/index/elon-musk-wanted-an-openai-for-profit/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk makes any public statement (including X posts) addressing the OpenAi statement by December 13, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Replies that Elon Musk makes to posts commenting on the situation will count, even if they are short (e.g. saying "Yes" to a post about OpenAI's statement…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

metaold8

Yes

47.78

3.1%

$47.78

Dec 14, 8:04 AM UTC

Emerald Falcon 810C

Yes

7.0%

Trader	Current holding value
tacobytes	$1.35
metaold8	$0
Emerald Falcon 810C	$0
oooo1411	$0