- What is the “Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- How did this market resolve?
- It resolved No on 1 May 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
- How does this market resolve?
- On March 25, Minister of Defenсe of Ukraine Rustem Umerov announced an agreement to “cease the use of force, and to prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea." (see: https://x.com/rustem_umerov/status/1904549644463427740) This market will resolve to “Yes” if an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to suspend or end military actions on the Black Sea goes into effect by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means that a qualifying deal is actively implemented for any amount…
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
