What is the “Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 18 Sep 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released,…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

161 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 19, 12:45 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-apple-release-iphone-18-in-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Market referencewill-apple-release-iphone-18-in-2026Updated 11d ago

techResolved

Yes · settled Sep 18, 2026 UTCkpisapple-event

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$252.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 18, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

11d ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

11d ago

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

161

Wallets

161

Top 10 share

69%

Yes / No shares

1.16K / 25.31K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

215

Loaded notional

$61.34K

Yes sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Sep 18, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

259

Move

+15 pts

Range

53.0% - 100.0%

Dec 13, 12:00 AM UTC to Sep 18, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Sep 18, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Sep 18, 12:00 AM UTC	99.8%	99.8%
Sep 17, 12:00 AM UTC	99.8%	99.8%
Sep 16, 12:00 AM UTC	100.0%	100.0%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 18 Sep 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released,…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Sep 18, 12:00 AM UTC

99.8%

Sep 17, 12:00 AM UTC

99.8%

Sep 16, 12:00 AM UTC

100.0%