Analytics
“Will another candidate win the South Carolina Republican Primary?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “South Carolina Republican Primary Winner”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Feb 21, 2024 UTC. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 39 daily price points from Jan 18, 2024 UTC to Feb 25, 2024 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 0.4%); 1 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 44 recent public fills from 19 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 39 points · 18 Jan 2024 – 25 Feb 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2024 | 0.3% |
| 25 Feb 2024 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 90.86K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate other than Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, or Ron DeSantis wins the greatest number of votes in the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary. If no such primary takes place in South Carolina in 2024, this market will also resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-republican-primary-winner
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.