What is the “Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 5.4¢ and No at 94.6¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 5.4% for Yes and 94.6% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($212.9K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($15.98K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 104 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 62.8% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 25, 9:25 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Polymarket Odds

Market referencewill-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027Updated 1m ago

politicsActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTCpoliticsgeopolitics

Yes

5.4%

94.6%

Buy Yes 5.4¢Buy No 94.6¢

24h Volume

$212.9K

Liquidity

$16.0K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes price

5.4¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

5.4%

94.6%

24h volume

$212.9K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 5.4¢

Open in terminal$212.9K 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

5m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.6%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

5.4%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

104

Wallets

104

Top 10 share

63%

Yes / No shares

4.58K / 4.58K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

320

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Sep 25, 9:26 PM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Sep 25, 9:26 PM UTC	5.4%	5.4%
Sep 25, 12:00 AM UTC	5.4%	5.4%
Sep 24, 12:00 AM UTC	5.4%	5.4%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 5.4¢ and No at 94.6¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 5.4% for Yes and 94.6% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($212.9K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($15.98K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Sep 25, 9:26 PM UTC

5.4%

Sep 25, 12:00 AM UTC

5.4%

Sep 24, 12:00 AM UTC

5.4%