Analytics
“Who will win the debate according to polls?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Kamala and Trump. The Kamala price is the market's implied probability that Kamala wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Kamala on 12 Sep 2024. $1.58M traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 7 daily price points from Sep 6, 2024 UTC to Sep 12, 2024 UTC (Yes between 67.0% and 99.1%); 99 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 59.9% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 304 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Kamala price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 6 Sep 2024 – 12 Sep 2024
| Observed | Kamala price |
|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2024 | 68.5% |
| 12 Sep 2024 | 99.1% |
This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Ipsos/538's opinion poll indicates Kamala Harris won the ABC-hosted debate against Donald Trump scheduled for September 10, 2024. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Ipsos/538 opinion poll indicates Donald Trump won. If the results are tied, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the Ipsos/538 release will not be considered for this market. If this debate is cancelled, otherwise rescheduled, or does not take place by September 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos/538 does not release a poll within a week of the debate (currently September 17, 11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve based on polls from YouGov. If YouGov also hasn't released a poll within a week of the debate, this market will resolve to "50-50".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-debate-according-to-polls
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 7.74K |
| defiable | Trump | 6.77K |
| Resh1no | Trump | 5.13K |
| Randomrandom | Trump | 4.89K |
| Roasted-Bidet | Trump | 4.85K |
| 2themoon2021 | Trump | 4.35K |
| Gamblino | Trump | 4.18K |
| ninjaturtle | Trump | 3.86K |