What is the “Trudeau resigns before February?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Trudeau resigns before February? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 6 Jan 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between December 16, 2024 and January 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

27 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 7, 6:15 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/trudeau-resigns-before-february) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Trudeau resigns before February?

Market referencetrudeau-resigns-before-februaryUpdated Jan 7, 2025 UTC

Resolved

Yes · settled Jan 6, 2025 UTCcanadapolitics

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$654.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 6, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 7, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 7, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

95%

Yes / No shares

354.87 / 35.72K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

269

Loaded notional

$197.39K

Yes sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 6, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+20 pts

Range

24.0% - 72.5%

Dec 18, 12:00 AM UTC to Jan 6, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 6, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Jan 6, 12:00 AM UTC	72.5%	72.5%
Jan 5, 12:00 AM UTC	52.0%	52.0%
Jan 4, 12:00 AM UTC	32.5%	32.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Trudeau resigns before February?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Trudeau resigns before February? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 6 Jan 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between December 16, 2024 and January 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Jan 6, 12:00 AM UTC

72.5%

Jan 5, 12:00 AM UTC

52.0%

Jan 4, 12:00 AM UTC

32.5%