Analytics
“Newcastle Knights vs. Manly Sea Eagles” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Newcastle Knights and Manly Sea Eagles. It belongs to the event “NRL: Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles”. The Newcastle Knights price is the market's implied probability that Newcastle Knights wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Manly Sea Eagles on 22 Aug 2026. $3.54K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 14 daily price points from Aug 9, 2026 UTC to Aug 22, 2026 UTC (Yes between 50.0% and 69.5%); 12 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 99.7% of the loaded shares; 24 recent public fills from 13 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Newcastle Knights price, Polymarket CLOB · 14 points · 9 Aug 2026 – 22 Aug 2026 · axis zoomed to 40%–80%
| Observed | Newcastle Knights price |
|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 22 Aug 2026 | 69.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| megacapper | Newcastle Knights | 1.9K |
| Deafening-Possible | Newcastle Knights | 150 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. |
This market refers to the NRL match between Newcastle Knights and Manly Sea Eagles, scheduled for August 22 2026. This market will resolve to "Newcastle Knights" if Newcastle Knights wins the match. It will resolve to "Manly Sea Eagles" if Manly Sea Eagles wins the match. Resolution is based on the final official result, including any extra time or golden point period if played. If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official NRL results.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/rlnrl-new-man-2026-08-22
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Newcastle Knights |
| 100 |
| TaxiVader | Newcastle Knights | 72.19 |
| signalso | Newcastle Knights | 25.91 |
| VitMo | Newcastle Knights | 25 |
| mountaingreen | Newcastle Knights | 15.67 |
| locatedMMM | Newcastle Knights | 10 |
| Mad-Sir | Newcastle Knights | 7.04 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Newcastle Knights | 6 |