Analytics
“Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 16 Sep 2026. $8.16K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 7 daily price points from Sep 10, 2026 UTC to Sep 16, 2026 UTC (Yes between 48.5% and 51.0%); 5 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 23 recent public fills from 12 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for September 15 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Miami Marlins or Arizona Diamondbacks. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-mia-ari-2026-09-15
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 10 Sep 2026 – 16 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 44%–56%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 51.0% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 48.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sore-Burial | No | 4.13K |
| Lucid1008 | No | 115.77 |
| sampo-one | No |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 5 |
| Mladek | No | 2.85 |
| Swift Signal F1D2 | No | 2.2 |