Analytics
“Jarren Duran: Home Runs O/U 0.5” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Over and Under. It belongs to the event “Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels - Player Props”. The Over price is the market's implied probability that Over wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Over on 6 Jul 2026. $120.99 traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 3 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 5 recent public fills from 4 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels, scheduled for July 5 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Jarren Duran records more than 0.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Jarren Duran records less than 0.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-bos-laa-2026-07-05-player-props
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Over price, Polymarket CLOB · 1 point · 6 Jul 2026 · axis zoomed to 5%–20%
| Observed | Over price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2026 | 14.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ludwig14 | Under | 55.99 |
| RadioFreeZerg | Under | 25 |
| triklozoid | Under |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
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