Analytics
“LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Supernova and Conviction. The Supernova price is the market's implied probability that Supernova wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Conviction on 23 May 2026. $76.68K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 75 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 68.1% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 185 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Supernova price, Polymarket CLOB · 1 point · 23 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 40%–52%
| Observed | Supernova price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | 46.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aldirhakqek | Supernova | 4.75K |
| EsportsGuy | Supernova | 2.55K |
| schusch | Supernova |
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Supernova and Conviction in the North American Challengers League Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 22 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Supernova" if Supernova win the match against Conviction. This market will resolve to "Conviction" if Conviction win the match against Supernova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lol-sn-cnv-2026-05-22
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 2.24K |
| kumz12 | Supernova | 1.17K |
| Foolhardy-Papa | Supernova | 773.4 |
| Sel228 | Supernova | 750 |
| Bjorngod | Supernova | 737.29 |
| Wrathful-Empowerment | Supernova | 721.94 |
| the-fisherking | Supernova | 700 |
| St3f | Supernova | 657 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard