Analytics
“Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “World Cup: Player to be in Argentina's Starting 11”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 17 Jun 2026. $2K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 6 daily price points from Jun 12, 2026 UTC to Jun 17, 2026 UTC (Yes between 88.0% and 99.5%); 12 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 97.4% of the loaded shares; 40 recent public fills from 31 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player takes the field as a member of Argentina's official starting lineup for the first group stage game the nation plays at 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If a player is officially announced as part of the starting lineup but is replaced before the game begins for any reason, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". Only players that are on the pitch at kick off will be counted toward a "Yes" resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of Argentina's official 1st match starting lineup for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-player-to-be-in-argentinas-starting-11-20260609174508189
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 6 points · 12 Jun 2026 – 17 Jun 2026 · axis zoomed to 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2026 | 88.0% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 99.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| 60fdsf | No | 73.26 |
| Verifiable-Total | No |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 71.43 |
| poteshniylol | No | 68.65 |
| Afraid-Rim | No | 68.52 |
| panchicho | No | 56.52 |
| olekslie | No | 50 |
| triklozoid | No | 50 |
| Colala | No | 20.45 |
| dropmeplease | No | 11.11 |