Analytics
“Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% Friday?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 22 Sep 2024. $38.79K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 11 daily price points from Sep 12, 2024 UTC to Sep 22, 2024 UTC (Yes between 67.5% and 100.0%); 3 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 226 recent public fills from 164 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on September 20, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 20 as soon as datapoint for September 21 become available. This market may not resolve until the September 21 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for September 20 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 20. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Kamala Harris winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Harris 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamala-harris-538-odds-55-next-friday
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 11 points · 12 Sep 2024 – 22 Sep 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2024 | 67.5% |
| 22 Sep 2024 | 100.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| UAN | No | 481.31 |
| Keen Comet 8DDB | No | 315 |
| LuckyLam | No |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 300.44 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
