Analytics
“Castelnuovo vs. Chen: Match O/U 22.5” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Over and Under. It belongs to the event “ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard: Luca Castelnuovo vs Kuan Shou Chen”. The Over price is the market's implied probability that Over wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Over on 29 Aug 2026. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Over price, Polymarket CLOB · 1 point · 29 Aug 2026 · axis zoomed to 40%–50%
| Observed | Over price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | 45.0% |
The current provider holder request did not complete. No legacy holder rows are being substituted.
Market-scoped trader rows are not available for this market.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Kuan Shou Chen in the ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard, originally scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/itf-caste-kuansho-2026-08-29
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.