What is the “Iran nuclear test in 2025?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Iran nuclear test in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

64 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuclear-test-in-2025) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Iran nuclear test in 2025?

Market referenceiran-nuclear-test-in-2025Updated Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$204.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

80%

Yes / No shares

17.18K / 27

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

223

Loaded notional

$47.15K

No sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

201

Move

-11 pts

Range

0.2% - 14.0%

Jun 16, 12:00 AM UTC to Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 31, 12:00 AM UTC	0.5%	0.5%
Dec 30, 12:00 AM UTC	0.7%	0.7%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Iran nuclear test in 2025?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Iran nuclear test in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test between June 13 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

0.2%

Dec 31, 12:00 AM UTC

0.5%

Dec 30, 12:00 AM UTC

0.7%