Analytics
“Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs TEAM ORUGA - Map 1 Winner” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Bad Luck and TEAM ORUGA. It belongs to the event “Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs TEAM ORUGA (BO3)”. The Bad Luck price is the market's implied probability that Bad Luck wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved TEAM ORUGA on 16 Jan 2026. $996.63 traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 7 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 5 recent public fills from 3 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Bad Luck price, Polymarket CLOB · 1 point · 16 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 45%–60%
| Observed | Bad Luck price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | 51.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Bad Luck | 347 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Bad Luck | 235 |
| Bold Scout BD7E |
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Bad Luck and TEAM ORUGA in the CCT South America Series #7 Group Stage, scheduled for January 16 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Bad Luck" if Bad Luck win Map 1 against TEAM ORUGA. This market will resolve to "TEAM ORUGA" if TEAM ORUGA win Map 1 against Bad Luck. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.sofascore.com/esports.
Resolution source: https://www.sofascore.com/esports
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/cs2-bad-oruga-2026-01-16
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Bad Luck |
| 124 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Bad Luck | 99 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Bad Luck | 84 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Bad Luck | 50.05 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Bad Luck | 27 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard