Analytics
“Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 11 Dec 2024. $402.97K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 daily price points from Dec 10, 2024 UTC to Dec 11, 2024 UTC (Yes between 18.5% and 89.6%); 14 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 99.3% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 254 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 10 Dec 2024 – 11 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2024 | 18.5% |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 89.6% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GretchenWhitmersBasementSlave | No | 4.32K |
| Slim-Play | No | 1.21K |
| yoak | No |
On December 9, Luigi Mangione was detained as person of interest in the ongoing manhunt related to Brian Thompson. It has been reported that at the time of detainment, Mangione was in possession of a manifesto. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the manifesto written by Luigi Mangione is made public by 11:59 PM ET on December 13, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The entire manifesto must be released for this market to resolve to "Yes". If the manifesto is released with redactions, it will still count. However mere snippets or quotes will not count to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brian-thompson-perps-manifesto-released-by-friday
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 500.01 |
| Heavy-Individual | No | 273.98 |
| joesmoe | No | 200 |
| Wazgha | No | 120 |
| Bassmaker | No | 101.71 |
| Maegor | No | 55.17 |
| Jschwo | No | 52.5 |
| iuagriu | No | 50 |