Analytics
“Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs Lilian Marmousez” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Gustavo Heide and Lilian Marmousez. The Gustavo Heide price is the market's implied probability that Gustavo Heide wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Gustavo Heide on 5 May 2026. $13.3K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 24 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 95.0% of the loaded shares; 451 recent public fills from 231 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market refers to the tennis match between Gustavo Heide and Lilian Marmousez in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gustavo Heide' if Gustavo Heide advances against Lilian Marmousez. This market will resolve to 'Lilian Marmousez' if Lilian Marmousez advances against Gustavo Heide. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-heide-marmous-2026-05-05
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Gustavo Heide price, Polymarket CLOB · 1 point · 5 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 72%–84%
| Observed | Gustavo Heide price |
|---|---|
| 5 May 2026 | 78.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HomeRunHazard | Lilian Marmousez | 1.16K |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Lilian Marmousez | 1.03K |
| Notradecopy |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Lilian Marmousez |
| 707.84 |
| balabalababalabala | Lilian Marmousez | 600 |
| Wretched-Helium | Lilian Marmousez | 487.22 |
| blindsamsam | Lilian Marmousez | 193.8 |
| CajetanCryptoTrading-Hour4 | Lilian Marmousez | 187.42 |
| kasongoYeah | Lilian Marmousez | 128.59 |
| cesarcc | Lilian Marmousez | 88.3 |
| MakeitTakeItt | Lilian Marmousez | 67.45 |