Analytics
“Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Alex Michelsen on 18 May 2026. $230.24K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 daily price points from May 17, 2026 UTC to May 18, 2026 UTC (Yes between 60.5% and 62.5%); 116 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 75.3% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 195 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Alex Michelsen in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-baez-michels-2026-05-18
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 17 May 2026 – 18 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 56%–68%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | 60.5% |
| 18 May 2026 | 62.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| r3dc0d3r | Sebastian Baez | 5.09K |
| simimasaii | Sebastian Baez | 2.92K |
| ferrariChampions2026 |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Sebastian Baez |
| 2.17K |
| BlasdeLezo1492 | Sebastian Baez | 1.5K |
| anderrr | Sebastian Baez | 1.08K |
| Esteemed-Visual | Sebastian Baez | 1.06K |
| Brick888 | Sebastian Baez | 1.05K |
| mp2spekskiet | Sebastian Baez | 902.47 |
| Fumki1308 | Sebastian Baez | 538.15 |
| Clever-Exterior | Sebastian Baez | 500 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard