Analytics
“Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Arnaldi and Sakamoto. The Arnaldi price is the market's implied probability that Arnaldi wins. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Arnaldi on 2 Oct 2025. $12.83K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 daily price points from Oct 1, 2025 UTC to Oct 2, 2025 UTC (Yes between 63.5% and 64.0%); 7 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 180 recent public fills from 35 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This is a polymarket on the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, scheduled for October 1 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Rei Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve in favor of the player(s) who officially advances to the next round. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/atp-arnaldi-vs-sakamoto-2025-10-02
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Arnaldi price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 1 Oct 2025 – 2 Oct 2025 · axis zoomed to 58%–70%
| Observed | Arnaldi price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | 64.0% |
| 2 Oct 2025 | 63.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RelentlessMist703 | Sakamoto | 288.57 |
| valeron88 | Sakamoto | 48.78 |
| Greed0624 | Sakamoto |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 32.5 |
| Lilpump | Sakamoto | 23.26 |
| 2j289uUmAio7ap245975 | Sakamoto | 16.35 |
| boybaby | Sakamoto | 11.9 |
| Saj32 | Sakamoto | 2.7 |