What is the “2024 October hottest on record?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: 2024 October hottest on record? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 8 Nov 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary… Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

39 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Nov 9, 6:58 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/2024-october-hottest-on-record) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: 2024 October hottest on record?

Market reference2024-october-hottest-on-recordUpdated Nov 9, 2024 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Nov 8, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$838.0K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 8, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Nov 9, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Nov 9, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

98%

Yes / No shares

12.88K / 21.03

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

367

Loaded notional

$179.75K

No sell at 99.8%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Nov 8, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-13 pts

Range

5.0% - 55.0%

Oct 1, 12:00 AM UTC to Nov 8, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Nov 8, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Nov 8, 12:00 AM UTC	5.0%	5.0%
Nov 7, 12:00 AM UTC	14.0%	14.0%
Nov 6, 12:00 AM UTC	16.5%	16.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “2024 October hottest on record?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: 2024 October hottest on record? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 8 Nov 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary… Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Nov 8, 12:00 AM UTC

5.0%

Nov 7, 12:00 AM UTC

14.0%

Nov 6, 12:00 AM UTC

16.5%