Brazil presidential runoff

Brazil, National

Some sources did not refresh on the last read, so parts of the calendar are older than others. The source list at the foot of the page gives each one's time.

Summary

The presidential election goes to a second round on 25 October. The TSE reports the official count; prediction market prices and registrations for polls measure different things.

Sources for this entry

Market prices

Midpoint prices from prediction markets on this vote: what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62% is a 62¢ price. They are market prices, not poll support, vote shares or a forecast by Vultax. Each market settles on its own wording, quoted with it, and a reading older than 45 minutes is marked stale.

  • Brazil Presidential Election

    Settles on: winner of the presidential election, second round included

    Observed 25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC, 7 min ago

    Brazil Presidential Election: market prices by outcome
    OutcomeMarket price
    Flávio Bolsonaro80%
    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%

    Market page and rules (opens in a new tab)

Poll registrations

These are registrations filed with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) before a poll may be published. They are not published results: they carry no vote estimates, and a registration is not itself a representative survey. A sample size of “Not declared” means the record gives none, which is not zero.

Registration metadata from TSE open data, licensed CC BY. Read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC.

100 registrations, newest first

  • VETOR TECNOLOGIA E PESQUISAS

    Registration
    BR065232026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    23 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    26 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    2,000
    Registered
    20 Oct 2026

  • METADATA

    Registration
    BR063412026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    22 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    25 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,550
    Registered
    19 Oct 2026

  • PODERDATA

    Registration
    BR028282026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    23 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    25 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    4,000
    Registered
    19 Oct 2026

  • ATLASINTEL

    Registration
    BR094992026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    18 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,200
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

  • ATLASINTEL

    Registration
    BR088482026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    18 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,800
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

  • ATLASINTEL

    Registration
    BR009572026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    18 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,800
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

  • ATLASINTEL

    Registration
    BR055812026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    18 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,800
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

  • ATLASINTEL

    Registration
    BR040622026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    18 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,800
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

  • INSTITUTO FRANCA DE PESQUISA PESQUISA E ASSESSORIA

    Registration
    BR022092026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    19 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,067
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

  • DATAVERO INSTITUTO DE PESQUISAS

    Registration
    BR020092026 (opens in a new tab)
    Fieldwork
    22 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026
    Declared release
    24 Oct 2026
    Sample size
    1,500
    Registered
    18 Oct 2026

Sources and update times

Calendar checked
24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC, 13 h ago
Data generated
25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC, 7 min ago
Next scheduled review
26 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC

Collection

  • https://www.electionguide.org/elections/type/upcoming/: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
  • https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/api/3/action/package_show?id=pesquisas-eleitorais-2026: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
  • https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/pesquisa_eleitoral/pesquisa_eleitoral_2026.zip: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
  • https://electionindex.org/v1/elections: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
  • Polymarket, existing fixed-study capture: ok, read 25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
  • New Zealand automated date page: access-hold, read time not recorded

Calendar sources

Vultax aggregates this calendar independently and on a nonpartisan basis from the sources listed, and links each date to the source it comes from. It does not list every election held worldwide. Dates are calendar days where the vote is held; no polling hours are shown. Market prices, where a page shows them, are what traders pay on the venue as Vultax last read it. They are not polls, vote counts or a forecast by Vultax.

Download the calendar data (JSON)

All dates in the election calendar

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