Victoria state election
Victoria, Australia, State
Summary
The state election is on 28 November. Markets about the most Legislative Assembly seats and the person sworn in as premier answer different questions.
Sources for this entry
- Reported schedule; verify date with authority (opens in a new tab), checked 19 Oct 2026, 22:43 UTC (5 days ago)
- Victorian Electoral Commission (opens in a new tab), checked 20 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC (4 days ago)
Market prices
Midpoint prices from prediction markets on this vote: what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62% is a 62¢ price. They are market prices, not poll support, vote shares or a forecast by Vultax. Each market settles on its own wording, quoted with it, and a reading older than 45 minutes is marked stale.
Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner
Settles on: party or coalition with the most Legislative Assembly seats
Observed 25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC, 7 min ago
Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner: market prices by outcome Outcome Market price Liberal–National 81% Labor 12% One Nation 6% Greens <1% Next Premier of Victoria
Settles on: premier sworn in after the election
Observed 25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC, 7 min ago
Next Premier of Victoria: market prices by outcome Outcome Market price Jess Wilson 83% Ben Carroll 12% Warren Pickering 4% David Southwick 3% Sonya Kilkenny 2% Danny O'Brien <1% Ellen Sandell <1% Gabrielle Williams <1%
Polls
Vultax shows no polling data for this election.
Sources and update times
- Calendar checked
- 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC, 13 h ago
- Data generated
- 25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC, 7 min ago
- Next scheduled review
- 26 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
Collection
- https://www.electionguide.org/elections/type/upcoming/: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
- https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/api/3/action/package_show?id=pesquisas-eleitorais-2026: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
- https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/pesquisa_eleitoral/pesquisa_eleitoral_2026.zip: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
- https://electionindex.org/v1/elections: ok, read 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
- Polymarket, existing fixed-study capture: ok, read 25 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC
- New Zealand automated date page: access-hold, read time not recorded
Calendar sources
- IFES ElectionGuide (opens in a new tab), checked 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC (13 h ago)
- Global Election Index, CC BY 4.0 (opens in a new tab), checked 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC (13 h ago)
- TSE, Pesquisas Eleitorais 2026, Creative Commons Attribution (opens in a new tab), checked 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC (13 h ago)
Vultax aggregates this calendar independently and on a nonpartisan basis from the sources listed, and links each date to the source it comes from. It does not list every election held worldwide. Dates are calendar days where the vote is held; no polling hours are shown. Market prices, where a page shows them, are what traders pay on the venue as Vultax last read it. They are not polls, vote counts or a forecast by Vultax.
